On June 15, domestic commodity futures closed down on a large scale, with the exception of 6 varieties of Shanghai tin, apple, live pig, ethylene glycol, fuel oil, and fiberboard that fell collectively. Specifically, coke fell by more than 6%, coking coal fell by more than 5%, ferrosilicon, iron ore, and asphalt fell by more than 3%, LPG, palm oil, methanol , red dates, low-sulfur fuel oil, thread, rapeseed oil, cotton , peanuts, Wire fell more than 2%.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.7% year-on-year in real terms. From a month-on-month perspective, in May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.61% over the previous month. From January to May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.3% year-on-year.
China Iron and Steel Association: In early June 2022, key statistics iron and steel enterprises produced a total of 22,886,500 tons of crude steel, 20,521,700 tons of pig iron, and 21,719,600 tons of steel . Among them, the daily output of crude steel was 2,288,600 tons, down 1.32% from the previous month; the daily output of pig iron was 2,052,200 tons, up 0.27% from the previous month; the daily output of steel was 2,172,000 tons, down 4.16% from the previous month.
According to data from shipping survey agency ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 to 15 increased by 6% month-on-month.
Analysis of key varieties
During the day, the black line was green across the board, and the two types of coal were the top decliners. Among them, the main coking coal contract closed down 5.95% at 2,671 yuan / ton, and the main coke contract closed down 6.78% at 3,380 yuan / ton.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics today, the current production of raw coal maintains rapid growth, and imports have changed from increasing to decreasing. In May, my country produced 370 million tons of raw coal, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%; imported coal was 20.55 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. At present, the supply side of coking coal remains stable as a whole.
In terms of coke, the current second round of increases has been fully implemented, but coking coal prices have also rebounded. With the rising cost of coal entering the furnace, the scope of losses of coke enterprises has further expanded. At present, coke inventories are mostly kept at a low level. In addition, some coke enterprises are reluctant to sell and wait for growth, and the overall supply is still relatively tight.
In terms of downstream demand, under the steady progress of resumption of work and production, the market generally believes that black terminal demand will usher in a strong recovery. But from a practical point of view, the data from January to May released by national statistics in Japan shows that although the national economy is showing a recovery momentum, the data of black terminal real estate is still weak; on the other hand, since this week, East China, South China, Heavy rains continued in many places in central China, and many places in the Pearl River Basin were affected by heavy rains. The third-level emergency response to flood and drought disaster prevention was in effect, and construction sites even entered a state of complete shutdown in some periods, which once again had a certain impact on terminal demand. Affected by this, the steel market as a whole has been weak recently, steel prices have continued to decline, and the profits of steel mills have also been rapidly compressed.
Hualian Futures said that the dual focus mainly focuses on the logic of industrial profit distribution and the emotional side under the guidance of the epidemic. The market outlook focuses on the trend of the epidemic and changes in terminal demand, and it is expected to run in shock. In operation, wait-and-see is the main, and radicals can operate in intervals.
Affected by the burst of inflation in the United States, concerns about tightening liquidity and risk aversion have increased significantly, and risk assets have generally weakened, among which Shanghai tin has fallen sharply. However, after the continuous sharp decline, the negative sentiment in the market has been vented. Shanghai tin has stabilized and rebounded again within days, and spot transactions have improved. The main contract closed up 1.28% at 246,560 yuan / ton.
From a fundamental point of view, there is a certain expectation of contraction in the current supply of Shanghai tin, which has a certain support for the futures price. Specifically, on the one hand, due to the large fluctuations in spot prices and the high level of processing fees for tin concentrates, there has been a centralized overhaul of domestic tin smelters recently; There has been a fall, and it is difficult for Myanmar stocks to continue to be released. In terms of demand, the performance of different industries is currently quite different. The photovoltaic industry maintains high growth, and the government issued intensive policies at the end of May to stimulate consumption. In terms of tin and solder companies, the current export orders have decreased, and the domestic off-season effect has appeared, and the decline has exceeded market expectations. On the whole, the epidemic situation has improved and the resumption of work and production of enterprises has accelerated, and the price of tin has fallen. The demand is still weak but the margin has improved.
Founder mid-term futures said that the overall situation of Shanghai tin is weak, the short-term resumption of work sentiment fluctuates greatly, and external shocks exacerbate market pessimism; however, production enterprises have increased centralized maintenance, supporting the near-month contracts, which can be reversed to take profits, and small positions can be tested. . At present, the 250,000 mark has fallen below, and the short-term can be backed by 250,000 short-term. It is not appropriate to be too pessimistic under the resumption of work and production.
Under the background of large-scale greening of commodities in the past few days, the price of live pigs remained strong and fluctuated. In the end, the main contract closed up 0.6% at 19,390 yuan / ton.
In terms of spot, Henan offers 16.8 yuan/kg-17.3 yuan/kg, up 0.8 yuan/kg from yesterday; Shandong offers 17.1 yuan/kg-17.7 yuan/kg, up 0.6 yuan/kg from yesterday.
For the market outlook, Guosen Futures analyzed that the overall supply and demand pattern in the next 1-3 months will still tend to improve, and from the perspective of seasonality, except for unilateral bear market years, spot prices tend to rise from June to mid-August, so The rising trend of pig prices in the medium term is basically established. From the perspective of futures, the premium of the main LH2209 contract is about 2,200 yuan, reflecting the market’s optimistic expectations for future pig prices. The spot finally broke the previously formed shock range and moved up at the weekend, which will help boost the bullish sentiment on the disk, and may cause shocks in the short term. Strong pattern. Operation, wait and see.
Focus on events
20:30 U.S. May retail sales monthly rate
20:30 Monthly rate of US import price index in May
20:30 US June New York Fed Manufacturing Index
22:00 US June NAHB real estate market index
22:00 U.S. business inventory monthly rate in April from the United States to the week of June 10 crude oil inventories
22:30 U.S. to June 10 week EIA strategic oil reserve inventory
24:00 European Central Bank President Lagarde delivers a speech
The next day at 02:00, the Federal Reserve FOMC announces the interest rate decision