According to the progress of wheat machine harvesting released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on June 12, the country has harvested 239 million mu of wheat, and the harvest progress is 78.5%, about 1.2 percentage points faster than last year.
At present, the wheat harvest in Henan has basically ended, and Jiangsu has entered the final stage. Nearly 85% of Shaanxi, 70% of Shandong, 35% of Shanxi, and nearly 20% of Hebei.
In an interview with the media, Wang Xiaohui, chief analyst of the National Grain and Oil Information Center, believes that this year's wheat yield is significantly better than the previous year, the quality is the best in recent years, and the overall situation of a bumper harvest has been determined.
Along with the increase in wheat yield per unit, this year's wheat purchase price has also increased. At the same time, this year's increase in the price of agricultural materials has also increased the cost of wheat planting and machine harvesting. In order to increase farmers' production and income, various departments have launched a number of measures such as timely disbursing the second batch of 10 billion yuan in subsidies for agricultural materials, and timely initiation of purchases according to market conditions, to better protect the income of grain farmers.
The harvest progress of "Three Summers" is faster than last year
Compared with last year, this year's summer grain harvest is faster.
, Institute of Rural Development, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Agricultural Products ( 000061 , told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that the progress of summer grain harvesting is mainly related to the maturity of wheat. This year, due to the weather and policy protection in the early stage, the wheat harvest has progressed relatively smoothly.
Zhao Xia, deputy dean of the Grain Economics Research Institute of Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, believes that epidemic prevention and control and the recent frequent occurrence of extreme weather are also factors affecting the process of this year's summer harvest.
Zhao Xia told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that due to the impact of epidemic prevention and control, there are few opportunities for migrant workers to enter the city for work this year, and more people return home. According to the current epidemic prevention and control regulations, migrant workers have been entering the city to find job opportunities one after another. It is precisely during the summer harvest and summer planting period. In order to work in the city as soon as possible and avoid returning to their hometown for the second time, they will harvest as soon as possible during the harvest period. In addition, the frequent occurrence of extreme weather also forced farmers to rush to harvest.
Zhao Xia reminded that in the context of frequent extreme weather, it is necessary to pay attention to the problem of keeping up with the matching of machine harvesting and drying facilities to avoid losses in the harvesting and drying stages.
In the national summer grain production, Henan has a certain representative significance. Judging from the production situation of summer grain last year, according to data from the Henan Survey Team of the National Bureau of Statistics, the total output of summer grain in Henan in 2021 will be 76.064 billion catties, of which the total output of wheat will be 76.056 billion catties, accounting for 28.3% of the country's total wheat output. The wheat area, unit yield and total output continue to rank first in the country.
Li Baoshen, a farmer in Huaxian County, Henan Province, has 20 mu of wheat planted at home, all of which have been harvested so far. Due to better weather this year, the output of wheat per mu is more than 1,300 catties. "We are here, the drier the weather, the better the harvest. If it rains every day, there will be no harvest." Li Baoshen explained to the 21st Century Business Herald reporter.
This year's increase in wheat production in Henan is not an exception. According to the "Henan Daily", there are frequent reports of increased wheat production in Henan. For example, the yield per mu of field in Zhoukou has increased by nearly 40 kilograms compared with last year, reaching about 540 kilograms.
Wang Xiaohui believes that thanks to the efforts of many parties, the yield per unit of wheat this year is significantly better than that of the previous year, the quality is the best in recent years, and the overall situation of the bumper harvest has been determined.
Hu Glacier said that this year's higher summer grain output is the result of the combined effect of "people's efforts, God's help, and good policies".
Affected by the continuous overcast and rainy weather last autumn, all regions rushed to plant winter wheat, and the sown area remained basically stable. The moisture content of the northern winter wheat area last year was the best year in recent years, which can effectively increase the heat capacity of the soil, improve the cold resistance and frost resistance of wheat, and lay the foundation for a bumper summer grain harvest. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs continues to pay attention to and guide the production of winter wheat in various regions, and relevant departments in various regions are also actively deploying relevant work to take the initiative in the bumper harvest of summer grains.
Zhao Xia believes that this year's grain production has increased compared with last year, mainly because the state has paid close attention to the implementation of financial policies to support agriculture, timely allocated various policy funds to support grain and oil production, and took multiple measures to stabilize grain production, which has created favorable conditions for grain production. environment of.
Zhao Xia pointed out that affected by the international grain market situation, grain farmers have positive expectations for grain prices this year, which stimulates grain planting investment and provides a good material basis for increasing grain production.
Wheat costs and prices double
Li Baoshen's wheat was not sold immediately after harvesting, but was stored first. According to Li Baoshen, the purchase price of new wheat this year is around 1.55 yuan/catties, an increase of about 0.3 yuan/catties over last year.
According to data from the State Administration of Grain and Material Reserves, the average price of wheat purchased nationwide on May 30 was 3,062 yuan/ton, and on May 31 last year, the price was 2,497 yuan/ton.
According to the "Economic Daily" report on June 13, the current purchase price of wheat is generally around 1.5 yuan per catty, far higher than the minimum purchase price of 1.15 yuan. The purchase price of wheat in North China is 3,000 yuan to 3,100 yuan / ton, which is higher than 600 yuan / ton in the same period last year.
Zhao Xia said that the current global food shortage is spreading, and the global food price index has reached the highest level since 1990. The surge in the global food price index has driven the prices of imported agricultural products to rise, and domestic food prices have also risen.
Hu Glacier believes that the rise in wheat prices is mainly related to multiple acquisitions and future market expectations. In addition to the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the increase in the price of international agricultural products has been transmitted to the domestic price of wheat, and the current game of various factors has also increased the price of wheat this year to a certain extent.
Will the increase in wheat prices be transmitted downstream, affecting the prices of flour and related food products? Hu Glacier believes that, on the one hand, the current high purchase price of wheat will increase the cost of downstream milling enterprises and corresponding food production enterprises to a certain extent; In the current situation, it is also facing the pressure of competition from other agricultural raw materials such as rice and meat, so the impact of rising wheat prices on the prices of downstream products may be limited.
On the other hand, in contrast to the increase in wheat production and the increase in the purchase price of wheat, the high prices of agricultural materials this year have also significantly raised the planting costs and machine harvesting costs of grain farmers.
Taking compound fertilizer and diesel as an example, according to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the prices of compound fertilizer (potassium sulfate compound fertilizer, nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium content of 45%) and diesel (0# country VI) were 3991.7 yuan/ton and 8675.6 yuan respectively in late May. / ton, up 59% and 36% over the same period last year.
Affected by the rise in oil prices, Li Baoshen introduced that the price of machine-harvested wheat in his village this year is 60 yuan/mu, an increase of 10 yuan/mu compared with last year.
According to the "2022 "Three Summer" Crop Mechanized Operation Service Price and Cost Change Trend Survey Report released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, based on the median, during the "Three Summer" production period this year, the expected price of wheat machine harvesting is 60 yuan / Mu, an increase of about 8 yuan compared with last year, a year-on-year increase of 15%. The main reasons for the increase are the increase in fuel costs and labor costs for machine operators. In addition, the increase in the purchase and maintenance costs of machines, tools and spare parts, and the epidemic situation also have a certain impact on the price of wheat machines.
In order to better cope with the rising prices of agricultural materials and ensure the income of grain farmers, the state has issued a "package" of support policies, covering grain subsidies, grain insurance , and increased incentives for large grain-producing counties.
As far as the near future is concerned, the "Package of Policies and Measures for Solidly Stabilizing the Economy" issued on May 31 makes it clear that the second batch of 10 billion yuan of agricultural subsidies should be issued in a timely manner on the basis of the 20 billion yuan of agricultural subsidies already distributed in the previous period. Make up for the decline in grain yields caused by rising costs. Actively do a good job in importing potash fertilizers. Improve the implementation plan for the minimum purchase price, implement the policy requirements to appropriately increase the minimum purchase price of rice and wheat in 2022, start the purchase in a timely manner according to the market situation, and protect the enthusiasm of farmers to grow grain, etc.