Li Jiachao was "elected" as the chief executive of Hong Kong and was the first chief executive to be a military attache. Since he joined the Police Force in 1977, he has many years of experience in security affairs, but he lacks experience in other fields. He has only been appointed as Chief Secretary for Administration for less than a year. Under the election of a small circle, more than 1,000 election committees, including people from the business community, handed over the world's three major international financial centers to Beijing who had no financial or business experience to be instructed and governed. The outside world interpreted it as " maintaining stability first, Economic abdication”, Hong Kong’s economic outlook is worrying.
Foreign media reports generally point to the fact that Hong Kong's strict anti-epidemic policies have led to the current economic downturn. Coupled with the increasing number of talented people leaving Hong Kong, Hong Kong's status as a global financial center has been threatened. Hong Kong's gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 4% in the first quarter of this year compared with the same period in 2021, a worse-than-expected performance.
Political repression and epidemic prevention policies lead to brain drain
A report by Al Jazeera earlier this month described Hong Kong suffering over the past two years from political repression and strict anti-epidemic policies that have spurred an exodus of high-skilled professionals and turned a once prosperous international business center into the world's largest. One of the isolated cities. The report added that the CCP’s support for Li Jiachao was “widely seen as a sign that China puts security above business.”
Tara Joseph, former president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong, described in an interview for the report that Hong Kong as a business center will be led by people with no business experience as "shocking." She believes that Li Jiachao is not a businessman and has ties to security agencies, adding that the longer the authorities continue to restrict entry and exit from Hong Kong, the greater the harm caused. Zao Taina resigned as president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong in November last year, saying at the time that she was unable to persuade Hong Kong authorities to ease restrictions on epidemic prevention and at the same time she had to undergo quarantine.
Huang Xunhui, the former chief strategist of the Greater China stock market of Haitong International Securities, who has been in the financial industry in Hong Kong for more than ten years, Huang Xunhui, the managing director of Hong Kong Insight Asset Management. Social control and reduced freedom in life may be detrimental to attracting overseas talent and even causing them to drain. He expects Hong Kong to face "a relatively bleak development stage, sandwiched between Singapore and Shanghai", but the advantages of Hong Kong's low tax rate and low capital controls may not necessarily lead to the withdrawal of international funds.
Liu Ruishao: Hong Kong's status as a financial center is "gradually lost amid difficulties"
In an interview with Radio France Internationale, current affairs commentator Liu Ruishuo pointed out that Hong Kong's status as an international financial center will be "gradually lost in hardships". He explained that Hong Kong's current financial status relies on Chinese capital and multinational corporations expecting to make huge profits in Hong Kong; but with the slowdown of China's economy, the amount of capital moving out of Hong Kong has decreased, weakening Hong Kong's attractiveness to foreign investment. He warned that a contraction or blow to the financial industry could happen all at once, not to mention that the number of US-funded companies in Hong Kong has dropped by as much as 20% to about 1,000.
Liu commented that Beijing chose Li Jiachao instead of the previously rumored Financial Secretary Chen Maobo to be the chief executive. When considering the role of Hong Kong, the priority was "regime security packaged by national security", for fear that the international community would influence China through Hong Kong. The CCP focuses on regime security, and the loss of its policies to Hong Kong is not a matter that it attaches great importance to.
Another current affairs commentator, Cheng Xiang, also felt pessimistic about Hong Kong's status as an international financial center in an interview with VOA. He said that in addition to financial freedom such as foreign exchange, there must be support such as freedom of speech and information flow in order to establish a transparent business environment. He believes that the CCP considers national security above economic interests, and "will not cherish the relationship with the international community that Hong Kong has established over the past century, because it feels that the state of Hong Kong will affect the security of the Communist Party's regime."
DPP: Hong Kong's future economic development becomes optional
In Taiwan, academics and politicians are pessimistic about Hong Kong's economic prospects. Fan Shiping, a professor at the Institute of Political Science at Taiwan Normal University, analyzed that what Hong Kong needs most now is to be led by people who specialize in economics, but they have sought military attachés from the police, because " maintaining stability " is the top priority of the CCP. Li's appointment as chief executive symbolizes that Hong Kong has indeed entered a police state, and it is clear that it is "not engaging in the economy". It can be expected that political control will become more serious after Li Jiachao takes office, foreign investment will be withdrawn, and Hong Kong's financial prosperity will not return to the past.
Wu Junjie, director of the China Affairs Department of the DPP, pointed out that in the future, Hong Kong will only focus on obeying Beijing's political direction, and economic development will become optional. He believes that if there is a way for Hong Kong's economic development in the future, it will follow the integration of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau, but if there is no way, this will be dispensable for Beijing.